
Home sales across the commonwealth posted an 8-percent increase during the third quarter of 2011 compared to a year before, although part of the growth appears due to the expiration of the federal tax credit for buyers in mid-2010, which sapped buyer enthusiasm at the tail end of the year.
Sales for the July-to-September period totaled 22,505 across the state in 2011, up from 20,774 transactions a year before, according to figures reported by the Virginia Association of Realtors.
In reporting the data, the organization noted that it is challenging to predict which way the market will head in the near future.
“Virginia’s housing market will likely be strengthened by low interest rates, rising residential rental rates, pent-up demand and an improving household balance sheet,” the real estate trade group said.
But . . .
“A return to stability in the house market may be slowed by employment trends, low consumer confidence, tight lending and underwriting standards and significant policy issues,” the Virginia Association of Realtors added.
While the 22,505 sales for the quarter were higher than the total in the third quarter of 2010, it was about 14 percent below the sales total of the third quarter of 2009 and about 15 percent under the sales total of the third quarter in 2008.
Part of the extremely low sales total from the July-to-September period last year was due to the expiration of the federal home-buyer tax credit. Buyers had jumped into the market in early 2010 to take advantage of what essentially was free money, and after it expired, the national real estate market, as expected, went months with low sales.
Six of the seven geographic areas of Virginia showed higher third-quarter sales in 2011 than 2010. But the one holdout was the biggest: Sales in Northern Virginia totaled 10,245, down 2.1 percent from the same period a year before.
(The “Northern Virginia” region is broadly defined by the Virginia Association of Realtors. It includes both the inner and outer suburbs of Washington D.C., and stretches down past Fredericksburg to the south and to the West Virginia line to the west.)
Among other geographic reporting areas:
* Sales were up 18.9 percent to 5,211 in the Hampton Roads area.
* Transactions were up 16.5 percent to 3,353 in the Greater Richmond area.
* Sales increased 25.5 percent to 1,761 in the Roanoke/Lynchburg/Blacksburg corridor.
* Transactions were up 10.3 percent to 1,158 in the Central Valley area that sits between Northern Virginia and the Blacksburg/Roanoke region.
* Sales were up 29.3 percent to 491 in Southside Virginia, which straddles the North Carolina border.
* Transactions rose 44.6 percent to 350 in Southwest Virginia.
Statewide, the median value of all homes that sold during the third quarter of 2011 was $235,000, up slightly – all of $100 – from the $234,900 reported in the second quarter of the year but down from the $249,900 reported in the third quarter of 2010.
“Home values in Virginia have only fallen 4.6 percent over the past three years, which is extraordinary, given the larger adjustments in home values seen in some other parts of the country,” the Realtors’ group said.
At the same time, the group cautioned that median sales prices are unlikely to move much higher until demand for housing picks up. But figures show that home sales have been higher in the under-$300,000 market statewide, “an important indicator of market stabilization.”
The broader Northern Virginia market had the highest median value for the quarter, at $326,000, up 1.1 percent from a year before.
Median sales prices were $200,000 in Hampton Roads (down 9.8 percent); $200,000 in the Central Valley (down 7.2 percent), $185,471 in Greater Richmond (down 6 percent), $154,950 in Roanoke/Lynchburg/Blacksburg (down 6.1 percent), $115,000 in Southwest Virginia (down 5.2 percent) and $95,000 in Southside Virginia (up 15.9 percent).
Sales volume for the quarter was $6.6 billion, up from the $6.4 billion reported a year before. It took an average of 91 days for homes that sold during the third quarter to go from listing to ratified sales contract, up from 81 days a year before.
Statewide, there were 12,668 homes working their way through the foreclosure process during the third quarter, up 3.2 percent from a year before. All regions of the commonwealth showed increases in foreclosed properties except Hampton Roads and Southwest Virginia.